State of the Mets Rotation (Part VI)

As I’ve said before, the Mets need pitching depth. Seems like Omar Minaya thinks so too. On Saturday, Christian Red of the New York Daily News, reported that the Mets had signed Livan Hernandez to a $1 million minor-league deal with $1 million in performance bonuses. When asked about Pedro Martinez, Minaya responded that they are set with the pitchers they have. However, “as long as Martinez has yet to sign with a team” David Lennon of Newsday won’t count the Mets out.

This news is very exciting. Last year, I and many others were hoping the Mets would sign Livan for the #5 spot. Turns out they could’ve used him with all the injuries to the rotation. This year, Livan will be competing with Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding and Jonathan Niese for the last spot on the rotation.

The downside to the minor-league deals given to Garcia and Livan is that Garcia has said he expects to be in the rotation or will pitch somewhere else. So we’ll have to wait for Opening Day to see whether the Mets will have strong pitching depth.

The best case scenario for the team would be to have Garcia make the rotation, with Redding in the bullpen and Livan in the Minors as the 6th man. Since Niese is still a rookie, it’s pretty much guaranteed that he’ll be starting in AAA.

As for Pedro, like David Lennon, until he signs somewhere else, I still see Pedro returning to the Mets. However, I think he’ll sit out the cold months (maybe in St. Lucie) and possibly get a call in June.

State of the Mets Rotation (Part V)

In my last segment of State of the Mets Rotation, I argued that the Mets should sign either Ben Sheets or Pedro Martinez. Two days later, Jon Heyman reported that Sheets would have elbow surgery. So it seems like Pedro’s path to the Mets just got a little clearer.

The Mets have a very good rotation with Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey. Then there’s Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, and Jonathan Niese all vying for the last spot on the rotation. I still think we need one more starter to add for pitching depth, and that person is Pedro Martinez.

As we’ve all come to learn over the past couple of years, you need pitching depth in case of injury. Do you remember last year when Pelfrey our #6 pitcher became our #4 pitcher? That’s why I propose the Mets bring back the Godfather of the Modern Mets for one more year on an incentives laden contract, to deepen the rotation.

I know there’s a whole bunch of reasons why that sounds crazy, but he can’t be worse than either Redding, Garcia or Niese. With Sheets scheduled for surgery, Wolf, Garland, and Looper signed, Pedro is the best option on this free agent tracker (and no, we’re not trading for a starter). Plus, he’s practically begging the Mets to bring him back.

So let’s think about it for a second. I’m not talking about Pedro as a #2 starter getting paid $12 million. Instead, I’m suggesting we bring Pedro back as a #5 starter getting paid $5 million guaranteed. That’s a high ceiling low risk move.

The added benefit is that Redding can slot in to the long man position, Garcia can get some starts in AAA (remember Garcia just pitched 3 games for the Tigers last season), and Niese can pitch a full season in AAA getting ready to take over the spot in 2010.

Look, I know Pedro hasn’t looked the same since 2005, but even he’s admitted that he has something to prove. Pedro has cojones, and that’s what this team needs more of. So let him come back for one year and prove that he’s still the man.

2009 Mets, We’ve Got Cojones!

State of the Mets Rotation (Part II)

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal wrote, “The Mets and Yankees have emerged as the leading contenders for free-agent right-hander Freddy Garcia.” He also cited a major league exececutive here who predicts “the price (for Ben Sheets) will be in the $6 million to $8 million range for one year, with incentives that could push the total value past $14 million. A lucrative club option also might be part of the package.”

Meanwhile, on Monday, Jon Heyman wrote “The Mets currently have no offer on the table and believe Oliver Perez is still seeking about $60 million (for five years). Perez remains by far the Mets’ first choice for their final rotation spot and are surveying other viable starters, including Ben Sheets, as well as Randy Wolf and Jon Garland.”

As I wrote last week, it seems to me that if the Mets wanted to, they could afford both Perez and Sheets while remaining under $160 million. Click here for the updated 40 man roster with salary projection and here I’ve added Perez and Sheets.

Given that all teams (except the Yankees) seem to be saving for a rainy day, I’d guess the Mets will only sign one of Perez and Sheets. I’m okay with that, as long as they also sign one of Jon Garland and Randy Wolf  who have been reported to be requiring a $6 – $8 million deal. Ideally, the Mets would also sign one of Freddy Garcia or Pedro Martinez for $5 million on incentives based contracts (to give the team pitching depth similar to the Red Sox’s Brad Penny and John Smoltz deals).

That would give the Mets the following rotation depth:

1. Johan Santana
2. Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. John Maine
5. Jon Garland or Randy Wolf
6. Freddy Garcia or Pedro Martinez
7. Tim Redding
8. Jonathan Niese

Mets Can Afford Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets!

I think we can all agree that signing Oliver Perez is a must for the Mets and that it will cost between 10 and 12 million per year. The real question now is, “Do the Mets need to make any other additions to the rotation after signing Perez?” I’ll go ahead and say Yes and that addition must be Ben Sheets.

Some might argue that a rotation of Santana, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, and Redding or Niese would suffice. Others will say that the Mets should sign the dependable Jon Garland to anchor the rotation.

The biggest argument I’ve heard over signing both Perez and Sheets is that the Mets can not afford it. Using salary figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the current 40 man salary stands at approximately $137.3375 million . If Perez signs for $12 million and Sheets for $15 million, the salary would increase to approximately $165 million. However, these figures include projected arbitration salaries for Church, Feliciano, Maine, Reed and Sanchez that seem to be very high. So more likely, the roster salary would be close to $160 million.

Therefore, if signing both Perez and Sheets would most improve the rotation and the Mets are willing to increase the 2009 salary to $160 million, then the Mets can and should sign both Perez and Sheets.

Here’s a link to the current roster with salaries and here’s a link to my projected roster with salaries.

State of the Mets Rotation

Update 11:05 AM: Braves Sign Derek Lowe

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal has reported that the “(Braves) have agreed to terms with veteran pitcher Derek Lowe on a four-year, $60 million contract.”

Original Post:

On Sunday, Newsday’s Ken Davidoff wrote, “the Mets remain confident that they’ll eventually land one of their top two choices” for their rotation: Derek Lowe or Oliver Perez.”

Yesterday, on MLB Networks Hot Stove Show, Jon Heyman reported that the Mets made a three-year offer to Oliver Perez worth $30 million. Today, Heyman reports that the Braves made a four year offer to Derek Lowe worth close to $60 million.

I’m glad that offers are being made, I was worried this would drag out until February. The Mets offers to Lowe (3/$36M) and to Perez (3/$30M) seem fair initial offers considering the market. The Braves seem determined to make a splash this off-season, especially after failing to trade for Jake Peavy and after A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees. If Lowe does sign with the Braves, the Mets will most certainly be able to sign Perez for close to what they are asking. Maybe a three-year $36M offer with a mutual fourth year option making it four-years and $50M will get it done.

The criticism against Oliver Perez is that he is inconsistent. If the Mets believe this to be true, will they want to compensate the lack of consistency by signing an innings eater for the 5th spot like Jon Garland? I’d rather spend less money on low monetary risk and high reward pitchers like Pedro Martinez and Freddy Garcia to compete with Jon Niese and Tim Redding for the last spot.

2009 Mets Starting Rotation

Yesterday, Jack Curry of the New York Times reported that the Mets have made an offer to pitcher Derek Lowe for a three year contract worth $36 million.

Today, John Harper of the Daily News writes, “it seems it will only be a matter of time before the Mets sign Derek Lowe“.

If the Mets do in fact sign Lowe, they still need to fill another spot in the rotation. Phillies fan Eric Seidman of fangraphs.com takes a statistical look at next year’s potential starting rotation.
According to his analysis, if the Mets sign Lowe, their rotation, “places the Mets right in the thick of perhaps sporting the best rotation in the senior circuit.”

In an ideal world, I’d like the Mets to sign both Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf, giving them a +15.1 wins (compared to the Giants +15.4 wins) and a combined 96 quality starts (In 2008 Santana 28, Lowe 20, Pelfrey 19, Wolf 18, Maine 11). If Maine can return to his 2007 form, that’s an additional 6 QS.