State of the Mets Rotation

Happy Johan Santana Day! (a.k.a. The Great Santana) What, don’t you say that every time Mets Ace Johan Santana is scheduled to take the mound? Before he does, let’s take a look at the state of the Mets rotation.

This time through the rotation the Mets will be showcasing Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Tim Redding, John Maine and Livan Hernandez.

Let’s see how they’ve done this year and what we might expect from this this week:

Johan Santana (5-2):

Santana won the NL Pitcher of the Month Award in April and is well on his way to another Cy Young caliber season. In his last start, Santana allowed six runs, four earned on 11 hits against the San Francisco Giants but still managed to get a Win thanks to some great hitting by the Mets.

As fangraphs.com points out here,

Santana is primed for a huge season. In 39.2 innings this season, Santana has punched out a jaw-dropping 54 batters (12.25 K/9), which is the highest rate of his career. His FIP sits at a microscopic 2.03, and he has compiled 1.7 WAR already.

In his last start against the Red Sox, Santana allowed one run on 7 hits in 5 innings.

Mike Pelfrey (4-1):

Pelfrey had a case of the Yips last week. He allowed 2 runs on 6 hits against the San Francisco Giants but suffered his first loss of the season as the Mets were unable to score on Matt Cain and the Giants bullpen.

Pelfrey is sporting a 1.54 WHIP, .286 BABIP, and a 5.23 FIP. Most striking is his 0.65 K/BB ratio, the worst in his career. However, his GB/FB ratio stands at 1.80, the best of his career.

Tim Redding (0-0):

Redding allowed two runs on 2 hits while walking four and striking out four in six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nonetheless, the Mets made 5 errors and left 11 on base, and in the 11th, had probably one of the worse innings in baseball this year (Glad I went to bed after the 10th).

I won’t bore you with any stats, since one game is not enough to go off of.

John Maine (3-3):

Maine allowed five runs (four earned) on eight hits while walking three and striking out three in 5 1/3 innngs against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Maine flirted with disaster the whole night but hung a slider to Casey Blake for a three run homerun.

Maine is sporting a 1.42 WHIP, .260 BABIP and a 4.83 FIP. His career best GB/FB ration is 0.80 (2006) but stands at 0.91 this year. Also, Maine’s LD ratio is at 22.5%, the highest of his career.

Livan Hernandez (3-1):

Livan allowed one run on seven hits while walking one and striking out two in seven innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Livan was wonderful, but the offense failed him as they left nine on base and couldn’t capitalize when they needed to.

Livan is sporting a 1.47 WHIP, .316 BABIP and a 4.65 FIP.

In his last start against the Washington Nationals last year, Livan allowed six runs giving up 10 hits in six innings.

The Mets need the rotation to continue to give the team quality starts, especially with the bats slumping. If the Mets are able to take 2 of 3 from the Boston Red Sox, they’ll come back with a 23-20 record and would’ve gone 6-5 on the west to east trip. Let’s Go Mets!

P.S. I’d love some feedback, especially about what’s missing from this post. Thanks.

State of the Mets Rotation (Part V)

In my last segment of State of the Mets Rotation, I argued that the Mets should sign either Ben Sheets or Pedro Martinez. Two days later, Jon Heyman reported that Sheets would have elbow surgery. So it seems like Pedro’s path to the Mets just got a little clearer.

The Mets have a very good rotation with Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey. Then there’s Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, and Jonathan Niese all vying for the last spot on the rotation. I still think we need one more starter to add for pitching depth, and that person is Pedro Martinez.

As we’ve all come to learn over the past couple of years, you need pitching depth in case of injury. Do you remember last year when Pelfrey our #6 pitcher became our #4 pitcher? That’s why I propose the Mets bring back the Godfather of the Modern Mets for one more year on an incentives laden contract, to deepen the rotation.

I know there’s a whole bunch of reasons why that sounds crazy, but he can’t be worse than either Redding, Garcia or Niese. With Sheets scheduled for surgery, Wolf, Garland, and Looper signed, Pedro is the best option on this free agent tracker (and no, we’re not trading for a starter). Plus, he’s practically begging the Mets to bring him back.

So let’s think about it for a second. I’m not talking about Pedro as a #2 starter getting paid $12 million. Instead, I’m suggesting we bring Pedro back as a #5 starter getting paid $5 million guaranteed. That’s a high ceiling low risk move.

The added benefit is that Redding can slot in to the long man position, Garcia can get some starts in AAA (remember Garcia just pitched 3 games for the Tigers last season), and Niese can pitch a full season in AAA getting ready to take over the spot in 2010.

Look, I know Pedro hasn’t looked the same since 2005, but even he’s admitted that he has something to prove. Pedro has cojones, and that’s what this team needs more of. So let him come back for one year and prove that he’s still the man.

2009 Mets, We’ve Got Cojones!

State of the Mets Rotation (Part IV)

On Friday,  Joel Sherman reported that the Mets avoided arbitration with John Maine. Maine will earn $2.6 million for 2009 and can earn $25,000 by pitching 200 innings. Maine earned $450K in 2008. That’s great for Maine and the Mets. I wonder if Maine’s late season injury had an impact on the Mets not signing him to a long term contract similar to what the Mets did with Mike Pelfrey, Jose Reyes and David Wright.

On Monday, Joel Sherman reported that the Mets “have reached agreement with Oliver Perez on a three-year, $36 million contract”. Perez earned $6 million in 2008. This signing is good for both parties. The Mets get the pitcher they wanted for three years and Perez now becomes one of the top paid pitchers in the league and will be eligible for free agency when he’s 30.

The Mets have a very solid rotation now but still may be able to improve it by signing Ben Sheets or Pedro Martinez. Both are risks, Sheets because of his injury history and Pedro because of age. It has been reported that Sheets is still looking for a multi-year deal with guaranteed money while Pedro has said he prefers to return to the Mets. The biggest difference between the two is that when healthy, Sheets is a true ace while Pedro would be competing for the last spot in the rotation.

I’d like to see the Mets sign Sheets to a 1 year $6 million contract with incentives reaching up to $12 million (similar to Andy Pettitte’s deal with the Yankees). Or, I’d like the Mets to sign Pedro Martinez to a 1 year $5 million contract with incentives reaching up to $10 million (similar to John Smoltz’s deal with the Red Sox). Signing one of these two will push Tim Redding to the long man/6th starter role, with Freddy Garcia and Jonathan Niese as the 7th and 8th pitchers.

State of the Mets Rotation (Part III)

On Thursday, Adam Rubin reported that the Mets agreed to a Minor League deal with Freddy Garcia. According to Jon Heyman, Garcia felt that the Mets gave him a better opportunity to start.

On Friday, ESPN Radio reported that the Mets were willing to offer Oliver Perez a four year contract and had a growing interest in Ben Sheets. That same day, Jon Heyman reported that the Mets improved their offer to Perez, but it wasn’t certain what the offer was.

The Mets current rotation would be  Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Tim Redding, and either Freddy Garcia or Jonathan Niese. If the team is able to sign Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets, then Redding would compete with Garcia and Niese for the 5th spot. Were the team to sign two more free agent starters, then Redding could pitch from the bullpen as the long man.

These are the free agent starters the Mets have been linked to: Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets and Randy Wolf.

Here’s how I’d rank them:

1. Ben Sheets – 30, Type A (GS-31, IP-198.3, W-13, WHIP-1.15, ERA-3.09, SO-158 )
2. Oliver Perez – 27, Type A (GS-34, IP-194, W-10, WHIP-1.40, ERA-4.11, SO-180)
3. Jon Garland – 29, Type B (GS-32, IP-196.2, W-14, WHIP-1.51, ERA-4.90, SO-90)
4. Randy Wolf  – 32, Type B (GS-33, IP-190.1, W-12, WHIP-1.38, ERA-4.30, SO-162)
5. Pedro Martinez – 37 (GS-20, IP-109, W-5, WHIP-1.57, ERA-5.61, SO-87)

I’m hoping the Mets can sign Oliver Perez for four years-$40 million and then sign Ben Sheets for two years-$20 million. If signing both isn’t possible, I’d prefer a combination of Sheets and Wolf, over Perez and Garland.

State of the Mets Rotation (Part II)

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal wrote, “The Mets and Yankees have emerged as the leading contenders for free-agent right-hander Freddy Garcia.” He also cited a major league exececutive here who predicts “the price (for Ben Sheets) will be in the $6 million to $8 million range for one year, with incentives that could push the total value past $14 million. A lucrative club option also might be part of the package.”

Meanwhile, on Monday, Jon Heyman wrote “The Mets currently have no offer on the table and believe Oliver Perez is still seeking about $60 million (for five years). Perez remains by far the Mets’ first choice for their final rotation spot and are surveying other viable starters, including Ben Sheets, as well as Randy Wolf and Jon Garland.”

As I wrote last week, it seems to me that if the Mets wanted to, they could afford both Perez and Sheets while remaining under $160 million. Click here for the updated 40 man roster with salary projection and here I’ve added Perez and Sheets.

Given that all teams (except the Yankees) seem to be saving for a rainy day, I’d guess the Mets will only sign one of Perez and Sheets. I’m okay with that, as long as they also sign one of Jon Garland and Randy Wolf  who have been reported to be requiring a $6 – $8 million deal. Ideally, the Mets would also sign one of Freddy Garcia or Pedro Martinez for $5 million on incentives based contracts (to give the team pitching depth similar to the Red Sox’s Brad Penny and John Smoltz deals).

That would give the Mets the following rotation depth:

1. Johan Santana
2. Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets
3. Mike Pelfrey
4. John Maine
5. Jon Garland or Randy Wolf
6. Freddy Garcia or Pedro Martinez
7. Tim Redding
8. Jonathan Niese

2009 Mets Starting Rotation

Yesterday, Jack Curry of the New York Times reported that the Mets have made an offer to pitcher Derek Lowe for a three year contract worth $36 million.

Today, John Harper of the Daily News writes, “it seems it will only be a matter of time before the Mets sign Derek Lowe“.

If the Mets do in fact sign Lowe, they still need to fill another spot in the rotation. Phillies fan Eric Seidman of fangraphs.com takes a statistical look at next year’s potential starting rotation.
According to his analysis, if the Mets sign Lowe, their rotation, “places the Mets right in the thick of perhaps sporting the best rotation in the senior circuit.”

In an ideal world, I’d like the Mets to sign both Derek Lowe and Randy Wolf, giving them a +15.1 wins (compared to the Giants +15.4 wins) and a combined 96 quality starts (In 2008 Santana 28, Lowe 20, Pelfrey 19, Wolf 18, Maine 11). If Maine can return to his 2007 form, that’s an additional 6 QS.